CNN reports the race with 96% counted...
1. George W. Bush 41%
2. Steve Forbes 30%
3. Alan Keyes 14%
4. Gary Bauer 9%
5. John McCain 5%
6. Orin Hatch 1%
Analysis Bush did what he had to do but nothing more. While he can declare a numerical victory and will be seen smiling and celebrating, he just made his poll numbers of between 40-49%, but barely. He was shooting for over 50%. Instead, the 54% winner was a guy we can call Theodore Theocrat, made up of Forbes, Keyes, and Bauer. This means more pressure on Bush by the social conservatives to move further to the right. Good news for the Dems in the general election. The big winners of the night were Alan Keyes, who won on debating points, and Steve Forbes, who moved up from polling in the 20's. This suggests Forbes hurt Bush on the abortion issue. However, Forbes cost was an estimated $400/vote. Although he didn't formally run in Iowa, McCain was hardly a winner, since he was looking for 10%. While he was right to stay out of Iowa, perhaps he should not have so strongly volunteered his opposition to Ethanol. Clinton-basher Hatch will be gone by the end of the day. --Politex, 1/25/00
REUTERS 9:24 ET. BUSH WIN LOWER THAN PREDICTED BY P0LLS.
AP 9:34 ET. BUSH SAYS HE'LL MOVE N.H. FOCUS TO EDUCATION.
JUNIOR, LIKE DAD, TALKS ABOUT HIMSELF AND PROCESS, RATHER THAN THE VOTERS AND POLICY. George W. Bush "strives to be Reaganesque, even as he waters down Reaganism," writes syndicated columnist James Pinkerton. "In contrast to his uncertain delivery at the Indianapolis Republican cattle show two years ago, he was confident and well-scripted in Iowa Saturday: 'America's strongest foundation is not found in our wallets, it is found in our souls.' Yet while candidates pushed the abortion hot-button repeatedly, Bush tucked his own nominal right-to-life stance at the end of a sentence: we must, he said, 'respect the aged, the handicapped, the unborn.' "Of course, the good times of today don't call for a 'vision thing.' In the Cold War decades, Ronald Reagan closed virtually every campaign speech with the reminder, 'We have a rendezvous with destiny.' But today, with the Evil Empire dead and gone, W's rendezvous-with-banality message plays well," Mr. Pinkerton writes. "Still, Bush will have to stand up for something, and like his father before him, he slips quickly into the familiar rah-rah 'Big Mo' mode that suggests an un-Gipper-like preoccupation with process at the expense of policy. As he told his supporters after the vote, 'We met our expectations. . . . This victory today in Iowa put me on the road to winning the nomination of the Republican Party.' "No kidding. But if he wants to win a general election, he will have get in the habit of telling voters what his candidacy means for them, not for him." from Washington Times, 8/16/99
1. Dole and Buchanan (tie) 3. Keyes 4. Alexander 5. Bauer 6. Hatch 7. Quayle 8. Bush 9. Forbes (Criteria: Affect, Poise, Rhetoric, Mechanics) Watch the speeches and decide for yourself.
1. Bush (9), 2. Forbes (33), 3. Dole (25), 4. Quayle (20), 5. Buchanan (29),
6. Keyes (12), 7. Bauer (27), 8. Alexander (38), 9. McCain (1), 10. Hatch (13).
Note: 17.7% were undecided.