Politex's BUSH WATCH for BUSH IN IOWA

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All the news and incisive analysis of the candidate's campaign." London (UK) Independent, 5/10/99

CNN reports the race with 96% counted...

1. George W. Bush 41%

2. Steve Forbes 30%

3. Alan Keyes 14%

4. Gary Bauer 9%

5. John McCain 5%

6. Orin Hatch 1%

Analysis Bush did what he had to do but nothing more. While he can declare a numerical victory and will be seen smiling and celebrating, he just made his poll numbers of between 40-49%, but barely. He was shooting for over 50%. Instead, the 54% winner was a guy we can call Theodore Theocrat, made up of Forbes, Keyes, and Bauer. This means more pressure on Bush by the social conservatives to move further to the right. Good news for the Dems in the general election. The big winners of the night were Alan Keyes, who won on debating points, and Steve Forbes, who moved up from polling in the 20's. This suggests Forbes hurt Bush on the abortion issue. However, Forbes cost was an estimated $400/vote. Although he didn't formally run in Iowa, McCain was hardly a winner, since he was looking for 10%. While he was right to stay out of Iowa, perhaps he should not have so strongly volunteered his opposition to Ethanol. Clinton-basher Hatch will be gone by the end of the day. --Politex, 1/25/00

AP 9:03 ET. BUSH SAYS "IT'S A SOLID VICTORY AND I'M GRATEFUL."

REUTERS 9:24 ET. BUSH WIN LOWER THAN PREDICTED BY P0LLS.

AP 9:34 ET. BUSH SAYS HE'LL MOVE N.H. FOCUS TO EDUCATION.

IOWA STRAW POLL RESULTS

JUNIOR, LIKE DAD, TALKS ABOUT HIMSELF AND PROCESS, RATHER THAN THE VOTERS AND POLICY. George W. Bush "strives to be Reaganesque, even as he waters down Reaganism," writes syndicated columnist James Pinkerton. "In contrast to his uncertain delivery at the Indianapolis Republican cattle show two years ago, he was confident and well-scripted in Iowa Saturday: 'America's strongest foundation is not found in our wallets, it is found in our souls.' Yet while candidates pushed the abortion hot-button repeatedly, Bush tucked his own nominal right-to-life stance at the end of a sentence: we must, he said, 'respect the aged, the handicapped, the unborn.' "Of course, the good times of today don't call for a 'vision thing.' In the Cold War decades, Ronald Reagan closed virtually every campaign speech with the reminder, 'We have a rendezvous with destiny.' But today, with the Evil Empire dead and gone, W's rendezvous-with-banality message plays well," Mr. Pinkerton writes. "Still, Bush will have to stand up for something, and like his father before him, he slips quickly into the familiar rah-rah 'Big Mo' mode that suggests an un-Gipper-like preoccupation with process at the expense of policy. As he told his supporters after the vote, 'We met our expectations. . . . This victory today in Iowa put me on the road to winning the nomination of the Republican Party.' "No kidding. But if he wants to win a general election, he will have get in the habit of telling voters what his candidacy means for them, not for him." from Washington Times, 8/16/99


POLITEX: BUSH WIN BELOW EXPECTATIONS. Paying $134.81 per vote, George W. Bush garnered 7,418 votes in the Iowa Staw Poll this evening, coming in first but below the Bush camp's expectations. In the days leading up to the event, the word was anything below a win of 40-50% would be disappointing. Bush picked up a relatively meager 31.3 %. The total vote of 23,685 was an unusually heavy turnout, since 15,000 voters were anticipated. Many voters couldn't even get inside the auditorium to listen to the speeches. Some voted early and went home to watch the candidates on C-Span. Steve Forbes was anticipated to come in second to Bush, and he did, but he, too, failed to carry the anticipated number of votes, coming in at only 20.8 % of the total. The big winners with much less money to spend were Elizabeth Dole, who came in third with 14.4 % of the total vote, a surprisingly strong Gary Bauer at 8.9 %, and Pat Buchanan, whose 1,719 votes gave him 7.3% of the total. Aides to Lamar Alexander believe his sixth place finish (6.0%) will force him to quit the race. He's expected to make an announcement to that effect sometime next week. (CNN) Also, it appears that Dan Quayle's eighth place showing with 3.9% will spell the finish to his candidacy. Immediately after the results were announced, Bush appeared in front of a Tejano band and a crowd of voters partaking of a second free buffet outside the auditorium in Ames, Iowa, declaring victory and claiming that the results met his expectations. He was half right. He expected to win, but after spending around $1 million, he expected to win big. Instead, his totals were less than a third of the votes, casting a decidedly damp blanket on a day that began with reports that the Bush camp thought they had a big win safely in their campaign bag. AP reports earlier in the day said that the Bush camp bought 11,000 votes at $25 per vote to distribute. Some voters interviewed by C-Span during the course of the evening specifically mentioned that they were given Bush votes to use, but once they listened to all of the speeches, they decided not to vote for Bush and selected another candidate, instead. 10:10 p.m. CT, 8/14/99


1. Bush (7,418) 2. Forbes (4,921) 3. Dole (3,410) 4. Bauer (2,114) 5. Buchanan (1,719) 6. Alexander (1,428) 7. Keyes (1,101) 8. Quayle (916) 9. Hatch (558) 10. McCain (83)

Today's Best Public Speaker

1. Dole and Buchanan (tie) 3. Keyes 4. Alexander 5. Bauer 6. Hatch 7. Quayle 8. Bush 9. Forbes (Criteria: Affect, Poise, Rhetoric, Mechanics) Watch the speeches and decide for yourself.

Results of Monday's Iowa Project 2000 Polls and (Days Spent in Iowa)

1. Bush (9), 2. Forbes (33), 3. Dole (25), 4. Quayle (20), 5. Buchanan (29),
6. Keyes (12), 7. Bauer (27), 8. Alexander (38), 9. McCain (1), 10. Hatch (13).
Note: 17.7% were undecided.


BUSH IOWA STRAW POLL HEADLINES

WP: BUSH WIN LESS THAN "RINGING ENDORSEMENT." 8/15/99
NR: THIS BUSH "GUY IS LIGHTER THAN AIR." 8/15/99
NYT: BUSH CALLS MONEY EVENT "EXERCISE IN DEMOCRACY." 8/15/99
AAS: "SPIN AND SPECULATION" 'CAUSE WIN "FELL SHORT." 8/15/99
LAT: BUSH GAVE "SOMEWHAT LACKLUSTER SPEECH." 8/15/99
REUTERS: COOK REPORT SAYS BUSH WON BY BARE MINIMUM. 8/15/99
NR: BUSH AIDES HAD "SET A MARKER OF 40-50%." 8/15/99
FWST: DOLE SPENT 25% OF WHAT BUSH SPENT. 8/15/99
HC: "FUNNY THING HAPPENED ON WAY TO CORONATION." 8/15/99
HC: SATURDAY POLL SHOWS BUSH SUPPORT SOFT. 8/15/99
DMN: DOLE AIDE SAYS BUSH "UNDERPERFORMED." 8/15/99
WP: BUSH LOYALITY? NEVER ! "DON'T LIKE RIBS !" 8/15/99
REUTERS: "MORE FUN THAN A BARREL OF DEMOCRATS." 8/15/99
DMR: A DAY IN THE LIFE OF AN UNDECIDED. 8/15/99
DMN: HATCH HAS VIC DAMONE, BUSH HAS THE NADA. 8/15/99
WP: PUNDITS PONTIFICATE POLL PRODUCT. 8/16/99
LAT: "TEPID" BUSH SPEECH DOES NOT MOVE PARTY FAITHFUL. 8/16/99
WP: HATCH SAYS UNDER 50% "DISASTER" FOR BUSH. 8/16/99
HC: BUSH WAS "AIMING FOR A BIGGER SLICE." 8/16/99
WP: BUSH USED ORGANIZATION, NOT PERSON-TO-PERSON. 8/16/99
WP: FORBES PROMISES TO BE TOUGH ON BUSH RECORD. 8/16/99
NEWSWEEK: FORBES TARGETS BUSH AS "INTELLECTUAL LIGHTWEIGHT." 8/16/99
NYT: BUSH ADVISERS UNSETTLED BY FORBES, 30% WIN. 8/16/99
AAS: FORBES WILL HELP BUSH "SPEND EVERY PENNY HE HAS." 8/16/99
BG: FORBES SAYS "ALL MONEY, NO MESSAGE = MUSH." 8/16/99
REUTERS: BUSH MISPOKE SELF RE STRAW POLL RECORDS. 8/16/99
OLIPHANT: GRUMPY BUSH CAMPAIGN DOING AN ABOUT-FACE. 8/17/99
NYT ED: NOW BUSH WILL HAVE TO BRING FOCUS TO ISSUES. 8/17/99
LAT ED: BUSH NOW NEEDS TO EARN STATUS THROUGH DEBATE. 8/17/99
BG ED: LIMITED CHOICES LEFT TO GOP "MOST TROUBLING." 8/17/99
BRODER: ROVE'S IOWA STRATEGY WAS PHONE CALLS. 8/17/99
HUFFINGTON: BUSH GRASSROOTS CLAIM "PREPOSTEROUS." 8/17/99
LINDBERG: BUSH FACED "POPULIST REBELLION" IN IOWA. 8/17/99
NYT: LAMAR OUT, FUTURE IS "TRUMP AND POWERBALL WINNER." 8/17/99
WP: "RATS" LEAVE QUAYLE, JUMP TO MCCAIN. 8/17/99
WILL: DOLE HINDERS MCCAIN SHOT AT BUSH. 8/17/99
MORRIS: GOOD SHOWING BY FORBES A PLUS FOR BUSH. 8/17/99
DIONNE: IOWA RESULTS REVIVE BUSH-DOLE TICKET. 8/17/99
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